The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 23 weather stations in the Crimea. Reanalysis data were used. The relationship between precipitation at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) according to B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya, and Z.M. Vitvitskaya has been analysed. The ECMs were revealed, at which precipitation extremes were noted simultaneously at several Crimean stations. It has been established at which ECMs in the Crimea, extreme precipitations most often occur and long-term changes in the duration of these ECMs were analysed.
Идентификаторы и классификаторы
Work on the connection between precipitations and macrocirculation processes according to the typification by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya and Z.M. Vitvitskaya [3] was carried out by S. B. Velev and N. K. Kononova since 1975 [1, 2]. The research methodology was perfected using these works. The Crimean economy is highly dependent on the availability of water resources, and taking into account the peninsula’s relief, extreme precipitations can be destructive; therefore, a study to identify the patterns of long-term fluctuations in precipitation is important and relevant at the present time. In this work, studies were carried out according to reanalysis data [8]. A comparison of the observational data and reanalysis data at Karadag station showed that there are some differences, but they do not prevent the identification of the main regularities. There has been identified a source of cyclone formation, from which they bring abundant and catastrophic precipitation to Crimea. The frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitations at different stations over the years and over the cold and warm semesters was established. Based on the analysis of fluctuations in atmospheric circulation, an assumption was made about a further increase in extreme precipitations in Crimea.
Список литературы
- Velev S.B. Ekstremalnye osadki na zapadnom i vostochnom beregax Chyornogo morya i ix svyaz
s makrocirkulyacionnymi processami [Extreme precipitation on the western and eastern shores of the Black Sea and their relationship with macrocirculation processes]. TrudyMezhdunarodnoj nauchnoj konferencii «Issledovanie izmenenij klimata s ispolzovaniem metodov klassifikacii rezhimov cirkulyacii atmosfery» [Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference “Study of Climate Change Using Methods of Classification of Atmospheric Circulation Regimes”], Moscow, 16–18 May 2016. P. 166-169. - Velev S.B., Kononova N.K. Svyaz
atmosfernyx osadkov na Chernomorskom poberezhe SSSR i NR Bolgarii s makrocirkulyacionnymi processami [Relationship of atmospheric precipitation on the Black Sea coast of the USSR and HP of Bulgaria with macrocirculation processes]. Izvestiya. AN SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya [Izvestia. USSR Academy of Sciences, series geographic]. 1980. No. 2. P. 101-111. - Dzerdzeevskii B.L., Kurganskaya V.M., Vitvickaya Z.M.. Tipizaciya cirkulyacionnyh mekhanizmov v severnom polusharii i harakteristika sinopticheskih sezonov [Typification of circulation mechanisms in the northern hemisphere and characteristic of synoptic seasons]. Trudy nauchno-issledovatel’skiy uchrezhdenij Glavnogo upravleniya gidrometeorologicheskoj sluzhby pri Sovete Ministrov SSSR [Proceedings. research institutions of the Main Directorate of the Hydrometeorological Service under the Council of Ministers of the USSR Sinopticheskaya meteorologiya [Synoptic meteorology]. 1946. Issue 21. Central Institute of Forecasts – Moskva, Leningrad, Gidrometizdat, 80 p.
- Kononova N.K., Mal
neva I.V., Gorbunov R.V. Cirkulyaciya atmosferyposlednix let i seli 2015 goda v Rossii i blizhnem zarubezhe [Atmospheric circulation in recent years and mudflows in 2015 in Russia and neighboring countries]. MaterialyIV mezhdunarodnoj konferencii “Selevye potoki: katastrofy, risk, prognoz, zashhita”. Rossiya, g. Irkutsk – pos. Arshan (Respublika Buryatiya) [Materials of the IV International Conference “Mudflows: Disasters, Risk, Forecast Protection”. Russia, Irkutsk - pos. Arshan (Republic of Buryatia)]. Irkutsk, 6–10 September 2016. P. 106-111. - Savina S.S., Xmelevskaya L.V. Dinamika atmosferny
x processov severnogo polushariya v XX stoletii [Dynamics of atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century]. Mezhduvedomstvennyj Geofizicheskij komitet pri Prezidiume Akademii nauk SSSR. [Interdepartmental Geophysical Committee under the Presidium of the USSR Academy of Sciences]. Materialy` meteorologicheskix issledovanij [Materials of meteorological research]. 1984. No. 9. 146 p. - Fukui E. Distribution of extraordinarily heavy rainfalls in Japan. Meteorology of Japan. 1970. Vol. 4-3. P. 10.
- URL: http://www.atmospheric-circulation.ru (accessed on 20 May 2020.)
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 2015, MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_slv_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), Accessed (accessed on 05.05.2020). DOI:10.5067/VJAFPLI1CSIV.
Выпуск
Extreme precipitation recorded at 23 weather stations in the Crimea according to reanalysis data is discussed and analysed.
Extreme precipitation recorded at 12 meteorological stations on the Eastern Coast of the Black Sea is discussed and analysed according to reanalysis data and at three stations according to their observations.
The evolution (unfolding) of a number of characteristics in an abstract system of relations is investigated depending on the change in its maximum scale factor, which allows the dependence of the Sun burning on the eccentricity of the Earth orbit to represent using an application.
The features of the development of a complex system of mankind were identified. The opportunities for the actions of people and humanity are included in the model of the system. Social structures as well as the impact of humanity on the environment are excluded from the model.
Другие статьи выпуска
The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 12 meteorological stations on the Eastern Coast of the Black Sea according to reanalysis data and at three stations according to their observations. Comparison of observational data with reanalysis data is carried out. The relationship between extreme precipitations at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) according to typification developed by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya, and Z.M. Vitvitskaya has been analysed. ECMs was revealed, at which precipitation extremes were noted simultaneously at several stations. It has been established at which ECMs on the Eastern coast of the Black Sea extreme precipitation most often occurs, and long-term changes in the duration of these ECMs are analysed.
The objective of this work is to identify the features of the development of a complex system of mankind. The opportunities for the actions of people and humanity are included in the model of the system. Social structures as well as the impact of humanity on the environment are excluded from the model.
This article studies the stability of the model depending on the uncertainty of dates. The impact of the driving force on some properties of humankind’s model is considered.
We examined the lack of direct proportionality between the driving force and the increase in the number of resource groups. We also found a prolonged temporary slowdown in the growth of the number of resource groups.
The index of great creativity of mankind is introduced and calculated. The index dynamics indicated that a period of global slowdown in mankind’s creativity happened between 2000 BC and 1500 AD.
The relationship between the history of creativity and the history of events of mankind was examined.
We found that the move of the great creative activity of mankind from Asia to Europe occurred in the first millennium BC. The model also provided an answer to the question if the development of mankind is a directional and controllable process. It has been established that the development of mankind is aimed at expanding the range of opportunities for human actions. This trend has existed since 42000 BC.
This article has an interdisciplinary nature. It addresses issues related to complex systems and driving force, as well as about creativity and humankind’s history.
The evolution (unfolding) of a number of characteristics in an abstract system of relations is investigated depending on the change in its maximum scale factor, which allows the dependence of the Sun burning on the eccentricity of the Earth orbit to represent using an application. A structural approach is used, which basically excludes the specifics of specific systems. The analysis tool is a protostructure, while the structure is understood as a set of relations, and the protostructure appears as its supposed primary basis. It consists of two components, endowed with cyclic nature, and specifies the spectrum of positions of the order parameter n k , where k is an ordinal number of a node being an allowed state in the selected cycle k = 1 - 10. All normalizations are performed for the k = 3, which is convenient for the application. Earlier, for the node k = 3, we obtained model positions Δ 3 at different stages of evolution, where Δ 3 is the splitting of the position n 3 as a result of its interaction with other n-positions in the system of nodes k = 1-10. To compare the nodes in the named system, scale factors are proposed, of which the largest is selected. It is also shown that as a result of the interaction between the protostructure components, the system boundary n min is formed, on which, on the one hand, the limiting velocity υ max / υ 3, and on the other, the splitting of the position n 3 , Δ 3, depend. The indicated speed is understood as an invariant and corresponds to the speed of light within δ = 1 * 10 -5 %. This paper analyses M / m 3, which is the largest scale factor of the system called the key one; it decreases in the process of evolution and plays the role of a control parameter, on which all other characteristics depend, except for the invariant υ max / υ 3. The following values are suggested for M / m3: a) initial value; b) the value at which the splitting Δ 3 appears, and c) the relationships of the above characteristics. Being based on this, and taking into account the backstory, a disc
Издательство
- Издательство
- ИФСИ
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- Россия, Москва
- Почтовый адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- Юр. адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- ФИО
- Старцев Вадим Валерьевич (ГЕНЕРАЛЬНЫЙ ДИРЕКТОР)
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- systemology@yandex.ru
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