ЭКОНОМИКА РЕГИОНА

Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness serve as macroeconomic indicators that support economic growth. Numerous studies conducted in recent years have empirically demonstrated the significance of FDI and trade liberalisation. Historical data illustrates that Ghana operates as a net importer, posing several challenges for domestic firms due to the comparative advantage of multinational enterprises and economies of scale. However, the full extent of the theories surrounding FDI and trade openness remains incompletely understood across all economies. This study aims to uncover the impact of FDI and foreign trade on economic growth in Ghana. The study utilised time series data sourced from the World Bank spanning from 1985 to 2021, on an annual frequency. The econometric methods employed include a unit root test (ADF), Engle-Granger cointegration test, and multiple regression analysis (Ordinary Least Squares). The ADF unit root test indicated that the variables were non-stationary and integrated at first-order difference. The Engle-Granger cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Regression analysis results demonstrated that both FDI and trade openness exert a positive influence on economic enhancement in Ghana, with GDP serving as a proxy for growth. Furthermore, the analysis showed that FDI has a positive impact on GDP per capita, whereas trade openness negatively affects it, utilising GDP per capita as the explained variable. Based on these findings, the study recommends that policymakers implement sound FDI and trade policies to foster economic growth in the country.

The growing economic prominence of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has attracted considerable attention to the macroeconomic dynamics driving their development. As these economies grow rapidly and become more integrated into global markets, it becomes increasingly difficult to balance economic growth, trade liberalization, and sustainable fiscal policies. Government size, a key factor in fiscal management, tends to increase with national income (as suggested by Wagner’s Law) and in response to trade openness (as outlined by the Compensation Hypothesis). Understanding these dynamics is crucial due to the unique fiscal pressures and global competitiveness faced by BRICS countries. This study investigates the validity of Wagner’s law and the Compensation Hypothesis in the context of BRICS. Using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on annual panel data from 1999 to 2023, our findings confirm Wagner’s law, showing a positive relationship between economic growth and government size. Additionally, the results support the Compensation Hypothesis, indicating that trade openness enhances government size. This study underscores the potential trade-offs between promoting economic growth and trade liberalization, as these strategies may inadvertently expand the government sector and affect fiscal stability. As BRICS economies continue to integrate into global markets, this research contributes to the discussion on Wagner’s law and trade openness, offering new insights into sustainable fiscal policies, government expenditure optimization, and the pursuit of global competitiveness and economic growth within the BRICS framework.